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Figures [Formula presented] Fig. 1. Effets univaries de l'age, Severite Scanner TDM, CRP et Saturation O2. Chaque point represente un patient, avec la valeur de la variable explicative en abscisse et l'influence associee en ordonnee. [Formula presented] Fig 2. Influences des patients correspondant aux patients les plus representatifs des trois groupes identifies. Les noms des variables sont raccourcis pour les groupes 2 et 3. Les valeurs initiales des variables sont indiquees apres le trait d'union et arrondies afin qu'elles apparaissent toutes comme des nombres entiers. References 1. Institut Pasteur: Projection 'a court terme des besoins hospitaliers pour les patients COVID-19;. 2. Chen T,et al. A scalable tree boosting system. In: Proceedings of the 22nd acm sigkdd international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining;2016. p. 785-794. 3. Bottino F, et al. COVID Mortality Prediction with Machine Learning Methods: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal. Journal of personalized medicine. 2021;11(9):893. 4. Lundberg SM, Lee SI. A unified approach to interpreting model predictions. In: Proceedings of the 31st international conference on neural information processing systems;2017. p. 4768-4777. 5. Dera JD. Risk stratification: A two-step process for identifying your sickest patients. Family practice management. 2019;26(3):21-26. 6. Gestions Hospitalieres: Naviguer dans la tempete, ndegree 605 - April 2021;. Copyright © 2022
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References 1. Williamson EJ, et al. Factors associated with COVID-19-related death using OpenSAFELY. Nature.2020;584(7821):430-436. 2. Domingo P,et al. Not all COVID-19 pandemic waves are alike. Clinical Microbiology and Infection. 2021;27(7):1040-e7. 3. Jassat W, et al. Difference in mortality among individuals admitted to hospital with COVID-19 during the first and second waves in South Africa: a cohort study. The Lancet Global Health. 2021;9(9):e1216-e1225. 4. Chen T, et al. A scalable tree boosting system. In: Proceedings of the 22nd acm sigkdd international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining;2016. p. 785-794. 5. Lundberg SM, et al. Consistent individualized feature attribution for tree ensembles. arXiv preprint arXiv:180203888. 2018;. 6. Bubar KM, et al. Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus. Science. 2021;371(6532):916-921.March Copyright © 2022
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Déclaration de liens d'intérêts : Les auteurs déclarent ne pas avoir de liens d'intérêts.
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BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on healthcare in many countries. This study assessed the effect of a nationwide lockdown in France on admissions for acute surgical conditions and the subsequent impact on postoperative mortality. METHODS: This was an observational analytical study, evaluating data from a national discharge database that collected all discharge reports from any hospital in France. All adult patients admitted through the emergency department and requiring a surgical treatment between 17 March and 11 May 2020, and the equivalent period in 2019 were included. The primary outcome was the change in number of hospital admissions for acute surgical conditions. Mortality was assessed in the matched population, and stratified by region. RESULTS: During the lockdown period, 57 589 consecutive patients were admitted for acute surgical conditions, representing a decrease of 20.9 per cent compared with the 2019 cohort. Significant differences between regions were observed: the decrease was 15.6, 17.2, and 26.8 per cent for low-, intermediate- and high-prevalence regions respectively. The mortality rate was 1.92 per cent during the lockdown period and 1.81 per cent in 2019. In high-prevalence zones, mortality was significantly increased (odds ratio 1.22, 95 per cent c.i. 1.06 to 1.40). CONCLUSION: A marked decrease in hospital admissions for surgical emergencies was observed during the lockdown period, with increased mortality in regions with a higher prevalence of COVID-19 infection. Health authorities should use these findings to preserve quality of care and deliver appropriate messages to the population.